Republicans most likely to be 2016 GOP nominee

The Hill has their list of 13 Republicans most likely to be nominees for the Republican presidential nomination for 2016 (see 13 Republicans most likely to win WH). I don’t agree with some of their choices but it makes for interesting speculation.


Thirteen — an interesting number. Why not 12 or 14?

They’ve divided their choices into categories beginning with....(continue reading here)

Larry Sabato: Jeb at top of GOP presidential field

It's no secret that I'm a Jeb Bush supporter but someone else has been paying attention to this under-the-radar possible presidential candidate.

University of Virginia's political guru Larry Sabato's latest Crystal Ball has Jeb at the top of the field of contenders:

In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

But during 2013 and into this new year, we’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.

The bold emphasis is Sabato's. In the Crystal Ball's latest, 2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New Familiar Name at the Top, he admits that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was the preferred presidential candidate until his recent troubles with Bridgegate and falling popularity numbers. There's also a widespread distrust of politicians like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz so, for those and all kinds of other reasons, Sabato writes:

And that leads us to another reason to take a potential Bush candidacy seriously: The establishment loves him.

In recent months, we’ve noticed an unmistakable and widespread desire among some of the Republicans we talk to, particularly ones who would be classified as members of the establishment on and off Capitol Hill, for a third Bush nominee in less than three decades. In one conversation, we mentioned several other potential candidates on our list, but the chatter kept coming back to Jeb. He was the only candidate with whom these party leaders appeared to be comfortable.

Jeb is known as a strong leader who was very popular during his time as governor of Florida. His connections reach to pockets nationwide for fundraising, and his campaigning ability encompasses the Bush family and beyond, not to mention the mentoring of two former United States presidents -- his father George H.W. and brother George W.

In 1998 and 1999, the name George W. Bush kept drifting to the surface of presidential nominee talk. Few took it seriously. It feels like a similar scenario this go round. And while Sabato has seen it all with candidates rising to the top only to sink again, one constant remains: Jeb Bush:

The implications of a Bush candidacy would be wide-reaching, and -- to be clear -- we don’t know if he’s running. He probably doesn’t know himself. The reason we’re putting him first now is that if he were to run, we’d see him as a modest favorite over the other potential candidates in the field, and he might be the one Republican whose entry could keep other candidates out. For instance, Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are close, and many observers doubt that they would run against one another in a presidential contest. (Bush’s son, George P., just appeared at two Palm Beach fundraisers for Rubio; the younger Bush is running for land commissioner, a statewide elected office in Texas.) That said, stranger things have happened in politics than a hypothetical Bush vs. Rubio matchup in a GOP primary field: Political alliances are often written in pencil, not pen.

While I cannot imagine Jeb and Marco Rubio running against each other for the nomination, I can imagine Jeb as the presidential nominee with Rubio as his vice president.

Much has been made of Barbara Bush, Jeb's mom, who, when asked about Jeb running, famously responded that there had been enough Bushes in the White House. What got lost in the hurry to push out that quote was the rest of her sentiment: that surely there were other families out there with sons and daughters willing to run for president whose last names weren't Bush. But she also came back recently to say she thought Jeb was definitely qualified and would make a terrific president. And smiled firmly as she added, "Be sure you say that I said that." I noted it on my Facebook page at the time.

For an interesting read, check out the rest of Sabato's top field of Republican contenders. Sitting right there on top is Jeb Bush, the one to keep an eye on as 2014 unfolds.

Update: Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post has been keeping up with Jeb and again wrote on Wednesday about his possible candidacy:

The most compelling argument for Jeb Bush goes like this: The country and his party need him. Eight years of President Obama will leave us internationally weakened, politically gridlocked, economically listless and stewing in partisan juices. From the Republicans’ perspective, four more years of Democratic rule, especially from Hillary Clinton, whose fingerprints are all over Obamacare and a series of foreign policy debacles, would push the country to a breaking point. Moreover, both to beat Hillary Clinton and to clean up the mess, the party and country need a grown up, a proven performer and a qualified chief executive. Choosing an ideologically extreme and/or under-qualified senator or an untested and unknown governor is fraught with peril. So, therefore, Jeb Bush becomes the most logical choice.

"The party needs a grown up." That about sums it up right there.

Jennifer Rubin: 'Don't forget about Jeb'

Jennifer Rubin's Tuesday column in the Washington Post provided good insight into former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and the opportunity for him to run for president in 2016.

Jeb, younger brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, has always been on my short list of candidates for 2016. His chances appear to have increased with the unfortunate circumstances of two of the other forerunners: Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell.

Don't get me wrong ... I'm not writing Chris Christie out just because of his "Bridgegate" issue. Come on, people -- if Hillary can bungle Bengazi the way she did and still be a serious contender for 2016, a little tied-up traffic can't be enough to knock Christie out of the running. But some conservatives can't get beyond the fact that Christie was, in their opinion, a little too snuggly with the President of the United States. I say the man had a huge disaster on his hands in Hurricane Sandy's tragic damage to New Jersey, and was being courteous to the man who offered help.

What is it with conservatives who think everyone needs to be snippy and nasty to those they politically disagree with? Sorry, I prefer to take a page out of the playbook of George W when it comes to civility.

Back to the list. Sadly, our own Governor Bob McDonnell is now pretty wounded by his own Giftgate issues that surfaced while in the Executive Mansion.

Which brings us back to George W's brother, Jeb. No matter what his mom said about not needing any more Bushes in the White House -- Barbara often makes off-the-cuff comments like that -- if he's the man for the job, it doesn't matter that he's a Bush.

There are many who disagree and I respect that. They think the baton should be passed on to "new blood." I say it needs to go to the person best qualified who can lead this country during the current turbulent times and, though I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy, if Jeb wants the job then I certainly think he's qualified with his background and common sense Bush family knowledge.

Jennifer Rubin shoots down most of the reasons people would have against Jeb. Give her column a read ... it could open the door to back this very-electable Bush brother/son.

Former NBA star Shaquille O'Neal endorses NJ Gov. Chris Christie

"I don't endorse many politicians. But Chris Christie is different." In a television ad endorsing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former NBA star Shaquille O'Neal came out for the governor's reelection, as reported by Aaron Blake in the Washington Post.

Chrisie is expected to easily win reelection. His margin Monday on Real Clear Politics was +26 points over his opponent.

NJ polls: Christie dominates governor's race

Governor Chris Christie continues to dominate in the polls for New Jersey's 2013 gubernatorial race. Real Clear Politics took six polls -- Quinnipiac, Fairleigh Dickinson, Rasmussen Reports, Richard Stockton College, Monmouth University, Rutgers-Eagleton -- and averaged them to show Christie leading 60 percent to 28 percent against Democratic opponent state Senator Barbara Buono.

Christie, seeking reelection for a second term, is a well-liked Republican governor in a blue state who has been praised for his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and his willingness to reach out to President Barack Obama in his search for help.

Va Dems circle wagons ... Va Republicans join in circular firing squad

Attacking Republicans seems to be the sport of the day, not only by Democrats, but also within the Republican Party. Recently, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie were attacked by the right wing of the GOP for not being conservative enough on their policies about immigration and other issues. Now add Bob McDonnell to that list.

Conservative bloggers like Willie Deutsch at Bearing Drift have joined with Democratic bloggers in the mindless act of becoming participants in attacking the Virginia Republican Governor. What should be more disconcerting is the effect this circular firing squad will have on GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli who has also been caught up in the controversy with his own issue of unreported gifts from Star Scientific and Jonnie Williams. When the far right is done with Bob McDonnell, will they then turn their guns on Cuccinelli?

In the words of Richmond Times-Dispatch political writer Jeff Schapiro, "... all Democrats have to do is watch a great Republican tradition: cannibalism."

The hemorrhaging needs to stop.

Interestingly enough, in the shadows away from this controversy stands Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling. The far right had its fair share of attacking him earlier this year by calling him a RINO and questioning his conservative credentials. In hindsight, perhaps Bolling did the wisest thing by stepping aside in this toxic environment. Meanwhile, as Jim Hoeft  reported, it's business as usual in the LG's office as he goes about the job of working for the people of Virginia.

The LG is also on the minds of the editorial board at Charlottesville's Daily Progress, wondering what if concerning Bolling's aborted campaign for Governor. Noting the issues surrounding the Governor, the Daily Progress wrote:

“Much of this has occurred on center stage during a summer that was supposed to have belonged to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a better man who stands in the shadows, cast there by a party that failed him and failed Virginia.

Undercut by state GOP leaders whose political IQ’s can only be measured in minuses, Bolling was thrown to the side by Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a man with more baggage than Samsonite.

Rather than hold a primary to allow voters to select the next Republican candidate for governor, party string-pullers conducted the rough equivalent of a meeting in a smoke-filled room, holding a convention to hand Cuccinelli the nomination.

Bolling could have taken his shot in 2009 — surely, he wishes now that he had — but he agreed to stand aside to unify the party, paving the path to McDonnell’s sweeping victory. The idea was that Bolling would wait his turn until 2013.

Then along came Cuccinelli. One wonders how strongly the capital’s most powerful Republican stood for the friend who helped him win election. There are apparent prices to be paid for McDonnell’s friendship. Williams is Exhibit A, evidently.

That has stirred rumblings about McDonnell’s possible early departure from Richmond. A conservative blogger claimed over the weekend that two sources told him the governor was preparing to resign in a plea deal to avoid ethics charges. McDonnell’s staff quickly denied the rumor.

It’s a sign of how deep the governor is in his own mess. Were he to be forced out, moving Bolling into the mansion, Virginia would be served in the interim by a leader superior to the alternatives being offered up for the fall. Perhaps Bolling might gain fuel enough for a write-in run.

That might be a dream, but it is far pleasanter than the nightmare now being lived out in the state’s highest office.

What the far right's circular firing squad is doing is driving people like Laura Lennox of Richmond to consider a write-in vote for Bill Bolling while others have taken to Facebook.

The loser in all this is the Republican Party, both statewide and nationally. Maybe we all need to reconsider the 11th commandment often quoted by Ronald Reagan: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.

Rubin: 'Maybe Christie got it exactly right in New Jersey'

The Washinton Post's Jennifer Rubin doesn't pull any punches when it comes to tea party criticism of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie:

It is fitting, I suppose, that the right-wing screechers have it so wrong again. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the most popular politician in the country, but they hate him. They have generally fallen for pols who are anathemas to everyone but them (Rick Santorum, Sharron Angle, Richard Mourdock, Todd Aiken), so it make sense that the Republicans who appeal to a wide cross-section of voters are anathemas to the crowd that seeks refuge in policy positions — be it gay marriage or immigration — rejected by so many Americans.

It just might be that Christie, who is super-popular in a deep-blue state, understands New Jersey and its voters a tad better than talk-show hosts, junior lawmakers from deep-red locales and right-wing bloggers with fewer readers than there are residents of Newark. They are excoriating Christie for setting the U.S. Senate special election for October rather than holding out until November 2014.

Rubin goes on to make the case that a Republican winning the U.S. Senate seat left open by the death of Sen. Frank Lautenberg is a long shot but there are even more reasons for having separate elections, as she lays out in her column.

It is easy to get caught up in the anti-Democrat echo chamber but Rubin hits the nail on the head as she concludes:

It’s a challenge for any elected Republican to screen out the noise from pundits and far-right lawmakers. But Trenton, in a lot of ways, is far from D.C., and Christie is a confident man. Maybe that is why his staff seems indifferent to the fussing of national right-wing pundits. A Republican doesn’t get to a 20- or 30-point lead in New Jersey by being a sap.

Christie appoints NJ Attorney General as temporary replacement for Lautenberg's seat

The Hill reported Thursday that NJ Governor Chris Christie has made his choice for a temporary replacement to the late Senator Frank Lautenberg's seat:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) on Thursday appointed state Attorney General Jeff Chiesa (R) to fill deceased Sen. Frank Lautenberg's (D) seat until the upcoming October special election. In his announcement, which came three days following Lautenberg's passing, Christie said he believes Chiesa is "the best person for the job."

Read the entire article here.

Dem Sen. Lautenberg dies at 89 ... will Christie appoint Republican?

Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey died Monday at the age of 89 of viral pneumonia. The oldest member of the Senate, he had served more than 30 years in Congress.

The Hill reports that Governor Chris Christie can appoint a replacement until a special election is held, and some are speculating whether he will appoint a Republican:

According to New Jersey election law, Christie may appoint a replacement to temporarily fill Lautenberg's seat until a special election occurs to elect someone to serve out the remainder of Lautenberg's term.

Christie may set the date of the special election. It's unclear whether he'll choose to schedule it on the same day as the gubernatorial and state legislative elections on Nov. 5.

Setting the special on the same date as the upcoming gubernatorial election could give a boost to a Republican candidate from Christie's coattails, as he's running far ahead of the Democratic candidate for governor and is expected to easily defeat her.

Lautenberg's passing offers the opportunity for Christie to appoint a Republican. Virginia conservative radio host John Fredericks speculated on Facebook Monday afternoon that two names Christie may be considering are Sen. Joe Kyrillos, a longtime friend, or Tom Kean, Sr., a former NJ governor.

Game changer? Christie endorses Mitt Romney

The news began leaking out shortly after noon that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who just last week once-and-for-all squashed speculation that he would run for President, would endorse former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in his presidential run.

Further news today confirmed that Rudy Giuliani would not jump into the race and speculation was that he would also back Romney.

Could this be a game changer in advance of tonight's Presidential Debate? Stay tuned....