Florida may have to decide between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio

By Lynn R. Mitchell

With Florida Senator Marco Rubio set to announce today that he is running for U.S. President, it is worth looking at how Republicans in Florida feel about their former Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Rubio getting into the same race.

While many would like to see Rubio run for re-election in the senate, if both end up in the presidential race it will mean Floridians must decide between them. (continue reading here....)

Larry Sabato: Jeb at top of GOP presidential field

It's no secret that I'm a Jeb Bush supporter but someone else has been paying attention to this under-the-radar possible presidential candidate.

University of Virginia's political guru Larry Sabato's latest Crystal Ball has Jeb at the top of the field of contenders:

In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

But during 2013 and into this new year, we’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.

The bold emphasis is Sabato's. In the Crystal Ball's latest, 2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New Familiar Name at the Top, he admits that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was the preferred presidential candidate until his recent troubles with Bridgegate and falling popularity numbers. There's also a widespread distrust of politicians like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz so, for those and all kinds of other reasons, Sabato writes:

And that leads us to another reason to take a potential Bush candidacy seriously: The establishment loves him.

In recent months, we’ve noticed an unmistakable and widespread desire among some of the Republicans we talk to, particularly ones who would be classified as members of the establishment on and off Capitol Hill, for a third Bush nominee in less than three decades. In one conversation, we mentioned several other potential candidates on our list, but the chatter kept coming back to Jeb. He was the only candidate with whom these party leaders appeared to be comfortable.

Jeb is known as a strong leader who was very popular during his time as governor of Florida. His connections reach to pockets nationwide for fundraising, and his campaigning ability encompasses the Bush family and beyond, not to mention the mentoring of two former United States presidents -- his father George H.W. and brother George W.

In 1998 and 1999, the name George W. Bush kept drifting to the surface of presidential nominee talk. Few took it seriously. It feels like a similar scenario this go round. And while Sabato has seen it all with candidates rising to the top only to sink again, one constant remains: Jeb Bush:

The implications of a Bush candidacy would be wide-reaching, and -- to be clear -- we don’t know if he’s running. He probably doesn’t know himself. The reason we’re putting him first now is that if he were to run, we’d see him as a modest favorite over the other potential candidates in the field, and he might be the one Republican whose entry could keep other candidates out. For instance, Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are close, and many observers doubt that they would run against one another in a presidential contest. (Bush’s son, George P., just appeared at two Palm Beach fundraisers for Rubio; the younger Bush is running for land commissioner, a statewide elected office in Texas.) That said, stranger things have happened in politics than a hypothetical Bush vs. Rubio matchup in a GOP primary field: Political alliances are often written in pencil, not pen.

While I cannot imagine Jeb and Marco Rubio running against each other for the nomination, I can imagine Jeb as the presidential nominee with Rubio as his vice president.

Much has been made of Barbara Bush, Jeb's mom, who, when asked about Jeb running, famously responded that there had been enough Bushes in the White House. What got lost in the hurry to push out that quote was the rest of her sentiment: that surely there were other families out there with sons and daughters willing to run for president whose last names weren't Bush. But she also came back recently to say she thought Jeb was definitely qualified and would make a terrific president. And smiled firmly as she added, "Be sure you say that I said that." I noted it on my Facebook page at the time.

For an interesting read, check out the rest of Sabato's top field of Republican contenders. Sitting right there on top is Jeb Bush, the one to keep an eye on as 2014 unfolds.

Update: Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post has been keeping up with Jeb and again wrote on Wednesday about his possible candidacy:

The most compelling argument for Jeb Bush goes like this: The country and his party need him. Eight years of President Obama will leave us internationally weakened, politically gridlocked, economically listless and stewing in partisan juices. From the Republicans’ perspective, four more years of Democratic rule, especially from Hillary Clinton, whose fingerprints are all over Obamacare and a series of foreign policy debacles, would push the country to a breaking point. Moreover, both to beat Hillary Clinton and to clean up the mess, the party and country need a grown up, a proven performer and a qualified chief executive. Choosing an ideologically extreme and/or under-qualified senator or an untested and unknown governor is fraught with peril. So, therefore, Jeb Bush becomes the most logical choice.

"The party needs a grown up." That about sums it up right there.

Strong opposition to government shutdown includes Republicans

The first paragraph of Byron York's article in the Washington Examiner says it all:

"A new poll done for Republican members of Congress has found huge public opposition, and solid opposition among Republicans, to the idea of shutting down the government over the issue of funding Obamacare."

An overwhelming 71 percent of Americans do not want a repeat of 1995 when Republicans shut down the government for three weeks. Even 61 percent of Republican women don't want to see Republicans go through with such a plan.

For those who were not paying attention in 1995 when the GOP shut down the government, it wasn't pretty. Google it. Or listen to the voices of experiences who have been there and done that, like Senator Saxby Chambliss, 69, and Joe Scarborough who was a congressman at the time.

Now a poll, commissioned by Republicans, is confirming that a shutdown will not bode well for the GOP. Will those "show horses" of the U.S. Senate, as the New York Times called Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Marco Rubio of Florida, continue to push for it?

Byron York, like others, can look at this poll and read the tea leaves:

"But there is no doubt defunding advocates anticipate a possible shutdown; their hope is to persuade the public to blame President Obama, and not Republicans, for it. The new numbers suggest they will have a lot of persuading to do."

It brings to mind once again American philosopher George Santayana's much-quoted belief, "Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it." Hopefully, GOP leadership and experienced voices will be able to stop the proposed fallacy.

NY Times on GOP shutdown threat: 'Politics of a Screeching Halt'

New York Times Op-Ed columnist Gail Collins does not mince words:

Right now, the show horses of the United States Senate are Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida. All preparing for a 2016 presidential bid. All making visits to Iowa. They’re the new faces of the Republican Party. Really, really new. The three of them have an average age of 45 and an average tenure in Washington of 1.9 years.

Whatever happened to learning one job before moving to the next step?

Republicans are alarmed, as the editorial notes:

And all three are currently in the news for their efforts to get Republicans to promise not to vote to fund the government this fall unless the president cancels Obamacare.

"I think it’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard," said Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, speaking on behalf of a large number of Republicans who regard the idea of shutting down the government with horror and who are never going to be mentioned in a Quinnipiac presidential poll.

For those who were not paying attention in 1995 when Republicans shut down the government, it wasn't pretty. Google it. Or listen to the voices of experiences who have been there and done that, like Senator Saxby Chambliss, 69. On Wednesday's Morning Joe on MSNBC, Chambliss gave a dire reminder.

“We’ve been down that road,” he said. “We shut down the government ...and we got our butts kicked over shutting down the government.”

That's an understatement. It took years to regain the confidence of the American people who blamed Republicans for the shutdown. Indeed, Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough was a Florida Congressman during the 1995 shutdown. He learned from that experience and called the current  threat "one of the stupidest arguments he's heard in two decades":

“We’ve got a president that’s gonna celebrate Republicans making the same mistake back when we shut down the government and basically re-elected Bill Clinton,” Scarborough said.

The new breed of Republicans could learn from the experience and wisdom of those who have walked before them. But listening to Cruz, that doesn't seem likely:

“The sort of cocktail chatter wisdom that ‘Oh, the shutdown was a disaster for Republicans’ is not borne out by the data,” Cruz said.

Meanwhile, the other side of the political aisle is watching this unfold, as Collins writes:

The Democrats are sort of horrified and sort of enthralled by the whole drama.

“Give a call to Newt Gingrich. He’ll return your phone calls. Ask him how it worked,” suggested Majority Leader Harry Reid.

It brings to mind American philosopher George Santayana's much-quoted belief, "Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it."

Va Dems circle wagons ... Va Republicans join in circular firing squad

Attacking Republicans seems to be the sport of the day, not only by Democrats, but also within the Republican Party. Recently, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie were attacked by the right wing of the GOP for not being conservative enough on their policies about immigration and other issues. Now add Bob McDonnell to that list.

Conservative bloggers like Willie Deutsch at Bearing Drift have joined with Democratic bloggers in the mindless act of becoming participants in attacking the Virginia Republican Governor. What should be more disconcerting is the effect this circular firing squad will have on GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli who has also been caught up in the controversy with his own issue of unreported gifts from Star Scientific and Jonnie Williams. When the far right is done with Bob McDonnell, will they then turn their guns on Cuccinelli?

In the words of Richmond Times-Dispatch political writer Jeff Schapiro, "... all Democrats have to do is watch a great Republican tradition: cannibalism."

The hemorrhaging needs to stop.

Interestingly enough, in the shadows away from this controversy stands Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling. The far right had its fair share of attacking him earlier this year by calling him a RINO and questioning his conservative credentials. In hindsight, perhaps Bolling did the wisest thing by stepping aside in this toxic environment. Meanwhile, as Jim Hoeft  reported, it's business as usual in the LG's office as he goes about the job of working for the people of Virginia.

The LG is also on the minds of the editorial board at Charlottesville's Daily Progress, wondering what if concerning Bolling's aborted campaign for Governor. Noting the issues surrounding the Governor, the Daily Progress wrote:

“Much of this has occurred on center stage during a summer that was supposed to have belonged to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a better man who stands in the shadows, cast there by a party that failed him and failed Virginia.

Undercut by state GOP leaders whose political IQ’s can only be measured in minuses, Bolling was thrown to the side by Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a man with more baggage than Samsonite.

Rather than hold a primary to allow voters to select the next Republican candidate for governor, party string-pullers conducted the rough equivalent of a meeting in a smoke-filled room, holding a convention to hand Cuccinelli the nomination.

Bolling could have taken his shot in 2009 — surely, he wishes now that he had — but he agreed to stand aside to unify the party, paving the path to McDonnell’s sweeping victory. The idea was that Bolling would wait his turn until 2013.

Then along came Cuccinelli. One wonders how strongly the capital’s most powerful Republican stood for the friend who helped him win election. There are apparent prices to be paid for McDonnell’s friendship. Williams is Exhibit A, evidently.

That has stirred rumblings about McDonnell’s possible early departure from Richmond. A conservative blogger claimed over the weekend that two sources told him the governor was preparing to resign in a plea deal to avoid ethics charges. McDonnell’s staff quickly denied the rumor.

It’s a sign of how deep the governor is in his own mess. Were he to be forced out, moving Bolling into the mansion, Virginia would be served in the interim by a leader superior to the alternatives being offered up for the fall. Perhaps Bolling might gain fuel enough for a write-in run.

That might be a dream, but it is far pleasanter than the nightmare now being lived out in the state’s highest office.

What the far right's circular firing squad is doing is driving people like Laura Lennox of Richmond to consider a write-in vote for Bill Bolling while others have taken to Facebook.

The loser in all this is the Republican Party, both statewide and nationally. Maybe we all need to reconsider the 11th commandment often quoted by Ronald Reagan: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.

Shenandoah Valley Tea Party Patriots call Marco Rubio 'Benedict Arnold' of the GOP

What a difference between 2010 and 2013. Remember when Florida Senator Marco Rubio was the tea party darling?

On Monday, the Shenandoah Valley Tea Party Patriots sent an email urging members to contact senators to vote against the immigration bill but something startling was in the email: they considered Marco Rubio a "Benedict Arnold."

Now that Senator Rubio is working to find a pragmatic, bipartisan compromise to the extremely complicated issue of immigration, the tea partiers who loved him have turned on him.

Here is the email from this group that declares itself, "Guardians of the Republic, Keepers of Liberty." At the bottom is their revelation about Senator Rubio:

To the Men and Women of Virginia
From The Shenandoah Valley Tea Party

A decisive debate will soon begin -- a debate which will determine the fate of this great nation. The opening words of the debate will be spoken in the United States Senate.

And, the name of the debate is Amnesty -- Amnesty for 20 million illegal aliens and amnesty for 40 million of their relatives. Should the forces supporting Amnesty win the debate, 25% of the population of United States will be citizens from third world countries with little or no understanding of the Constitution or the Bill of Rights. America will be ruled by a one-party government which will be socialist and authoritarian.

The Shenandoah Valley Tea Party urges you to fight the forces supporting Amnesty with the most powerful tool available to you – your telephone, wielded with passion and purpose.

Raise your telephone and raise you voice to the Senators in Washington.

In 2006, when Amnesty legislation was debated, the Bill was defeated because Americans across the country besieged Washington with telephone calls. Amnesty was defeated with the telephone then. Amnesty can be defeated with the telephone now.

Men and women of Virginia: This is your country. Will you defend it?

Notes for calling: 1) Emails have little influence as many Congressman have their staffs delete emails without reading them. 2) Some Senators will turn off their incoming calls, sending callers to a voicemail box, which is then emptied without listening to the messages. 3) Call the Washington offices first. If the telephones are turned off, then call the regional offices. The telephone numbers are found on the Senators’ websites. Google by name and look under “Contact Us”. 4) Fax’s usually go through with no delay. 5) Be tenacious. 6) Contact your own Senators, and other Senators who should be encouraged to vote against Schumer’s Immigration Bill.

Listed below are some, but not all, of the Senators who you should call. Forward this email to everyone you know.

Republicans who are up for re-election next year

Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) (202) 224-4944
Saxby Chambliss (Georgia) (202) 224-3521
Thad Cochran (Mississippi) (202) 224-5054
Susan Collins (Maine) (202) 224-2523
John Cornyn (Texas) (202) 224-2934
Mike Enzi (Wyoming) (202) 224-3424
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) (202) 224-5972
James Inhofe (Oklahoma) (202) 224-4721
Mike Johanns (Nebraska) (202) 224-4224
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) (202) 224-2541
Jim Risch (Idaho) (202) 224-2752
Pat Roberts (Kansas) (202) 224-4774
Jeff Sessions (Alabama) (202) 224-4124

Virginia’s Senators
Tim Kaine (Virginia) (202) 224-4024
Mark Warner (Virginia) (202) 224-2023

The Benedict Arnold of the Republican Party
Marco Rubio (Florida) (202) 224-3041

The tea party, the group that started four years ago as individual, independent thinkers following their own consciences, now walks lock-step with the people who make the decisions for them. Those people have now decided Senator Rubio is a traitor.

Making the case for Jeb Bush in 2016

The 2016 presidential election is on everyone's minds, and names are bantered back and forth on both sides of the political aisle.

For Republicans, the name "Jeb Bush" is heard more and more. Some have "Bush" fatigue, others insist no one other than a tea party pick is conservative enough. As for me ... I like Jeb. He was a very popular governor during his leadership in Florida. He was actually the Bush son most thought would run for the presidency. I think Jeb should run.

I'm not alone in that thinking. From writer Gary Stein at the Sun Sentinel:

No offense to Barbara Bush, who seems like a fabulous grandmother, and  certainly has been a wonderful mother and wife, raising a future president and being married to another one.

But Barbara, I hope son Jeb doesn’t take your advice not to run for President.

You famously said last week that “We’ve had enough Bushes” when talking about Jeb’s presidential possibilities in 2016.

Actually, if the 2012 Republican presidential hopeful field was any indication, we  haven’t had enough.

It seemed like every week, another right wing kook was in the lead for the Republican nomination. They finally went with boring Mitt Romney, and you remember how well that worked out.

I disagree that Governor Romney was "boring" and felt that his problems were more that he was running against the Democratic incumbent which may have been one reason Jeb Bush declined to run.

Mr. Stein goes on to make the case for Jeb:

Jeb would be refreshing for a GOP candidate, in that he is sane.

As governor of Florida, he may have done some things you didn’t like, but he was very popular. And he didn’t come across as crazed.

So I ask you, who do you like for the Republicans in 2016 if it’s NOT Jeb Bush?

Marco Rubio? Rand Paul? Paul Ryan?

Like I said Jeb looks better every second.

Yep, it's still early in the race but Jeb is becoming more visible and making appearances around the country. I'll be keeping up with this Bush son who is a conservative leader, no matter what his last name. Jeb Bush for President? I say bring it on.

American Power: Huckabee to endorse Rubio in Florida GOP Primary

Donald Douglas at California's American Power blog just sent an email with his latest post: Huckabee to Endorse Rubio in Florida GOP Primary. This is good news for conservative Republicans.

Had an email last week from Erick Erickson at RedState raising funds for Rubio, and another email from my friend, Josh Levy, urging those who could to contribute even if it was $10. That successful drive by RedState raised $10,000 in one day for Marco Rubio.

Check out all the details at American Power.