Thursday, October 30, 2008

Ouch

Shad Plank is reporting UVA's Larry Sabato's election night prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174. Ouch.

4 comments:

J. Tyler Ballance said...

The chief complaint the Republican base has had for the McCain-Pain ticket is that all they do is try to slime Obama, while offering no positive ideas or uplifting vision of their own.

In spite of Obama's details being a little thin, his team has made a good and effective effort to bring forward some workable solutions and have provided a positive path to getting America back on the road to prosperity. Who knows if the ideas will work, but Obama's team is at least willing to give it a try on behalf of all Americans. Millions of Republicans have agreed and are willing to help Obama take a turn at the plate. Let's hope, for the sake of our Nation, that he hits a home run.

Here's a summary of positions offered by the Obama team:

Near term economic relief: $1000 per family energy rebate, penalty free withdrawals from 401Ks, and temporary suspension of minimum distribution requirements for retirement accounts.

Education: Reforms to No Child Left Behind. Bonuses for experienced teachers who mentor new teachers and an $18 billion boost to early childhood programs.

Income Taxes: Tax cut for those earning less than $250,000 a year, while raising the top two marginal rates to 36% and 39.6% (about a five per cent increase). Also, eliminate income taxes for seniors earning less than $50,000 and providing a making work pay initiative that will provide an additional $500 to workers who earn less than $75,000.

Investments: Eliminate capital gains taxes on small and newly started businesses. Five percent increase in long term capital gains taxes for those making over $250,000. Improve retirement security by requiring automatic enrollment of workers in a workplace pension plan or, for companies with out pension plans, enrollment of workers in direct deposit IRA. Provide a savers credit of $500 on the first $1000 saved by those earning less than $75,000.

Health Care: Reduce the number of uninsured by 26 million (down from about 50 million) by providing health insurance subsidies that will reduce typical family health care costs by about $185 per year. Provide a federal program that will make available health insurance for all Americans and require coverage for children.

Energy: 15 Billion per year for ten years to develop alternative energy. Offshore drilling and windfall profits taxes on energy companies.

Housing: Provide judges more flexibility to modify mortgages to allow people to keep their house. Ninety day moratorium on foreclosures and improve the mortgage interest deduction eligibility.

Foreign Policy: Withdraw from Iraq in 16 months, add 7,000 troops to Afghanistan and attack terrorist strongholds in other countries like Pakistan. Will open a dialogue with Cuba, North Korea and Iran and other countries currently seen as hostile to the U.S.

Social Issues: Baby killing is OK, but some restrictions on late term murders. Marriage is between one man and one woman, but supports leaving the decision to approve marriages to the States. Supports civil unions to allow lesbians and male homosexuals to role play as man and wife.
Guns should remain legal with what Obama calls "common sense" limits including the cosmetic limits placed on rifles that are commonly referred to as the "Assault Weapons Ban" and the addition of regulations to help make guns more child proof.

Spending cuts: Wants to have a line-by-line budget review and cut programs deemed as "not working." Supports pay as you go budgeting to reduce deficits and control spending.

Court appointments: Favors "moderate" judges who will use the judge's own values in addition to the Constitution to render opinions. Would favor judges like Breyer, Ginsburg, and Souter.
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Sources: WSJ, Media General News Service and Obama campaign.
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If someone is a single issue voter, Pro Life or gun rights, then Obama is not your candidate. However, if you favor a plan that will get the economy moving again and give a boost in income to the average worker of about $2,185 per year, then Obama is a solid choice, regardless of prior political affiliation.

Misfit410 said...

Wait did you just use the words "Moderate" and "Ginsburg" in the same sentence?

those two words go together like Peanut Butter and Tuna Fish!!

rightwingliberal said...

Ty,

If you really think all of that drivel will "get the economy moving again," then you are exactly the kind of person for whom the Republican Party no longer has use.

Big-government Huckabism is exactly what drove the GOP into the ground - and you want more of it?

Don't let the door hit your rear on the way out.

J. Tyler Ballance said...

RWL: I wrote: "Here's a summary of positions offered by the Obama team:"

Those are not my thoughts or suggestions, just a summation of the Obama positions.

The point is, his team has been hammering away all election long on the theme that he actually has some ideas and a plan for "Change" and "Hope."

If you reflect on my earlier posts on the subject, several folks along with me had asked for more substance and less "happy talk" from their side. To their credit, they added more substance to their website and Senator Obama's speeches gained more specifics.

By contrast, McCain-Pain pissed away millions in resources repeating attacks on Obama; some of which were just nonsense, when had they followed-up with counter punches containing real solutions and a positive message that showed a hopeful vision of the road back to prosperity, then Americans would have bought into the premise of McCain as a change agent and not just Bush III.

Of course adding the gimmick, Palin, rather than selecting a real running mate, like Mitt Romney, McCain made the ticket wholly unacceptable to most Americans.

The lesson is that Republicans must provide a vision to that "Shining City on the Hill" for Americans and pave the way with real solutions to the real problems. For the Congressional elections in 2010, the GOP theme should be based on a comprehensive energy independence plan for America and an economic development effort that will restore our domestic strategic manufacturing base.

We also need candidates who have a proven track record of working constructively across Party lines. Here in Virginia, the citizens are very angry at Bush and by extension, at McCain-Pain and anyone associated with them. If the voters are to forget about Bush-McCain, the GOP in Virginia needs to nominate fresh new faces to the three statewide offices for 2009. McDonnell and Bolling will send the message that Republicans have learned nothing in the 2008 elections and that the GOP will offer the same old stuff.

This is why we already are polling 17% behind the presumptive Democratic nominees.

With fresh faces as our nominees, Men who have strong track records of working cooperatively with the Democrats, our Republican Party will have a very good chance of sweeping the statewide offices. If we fail to signal that lessons have been learned and Republicans are moving forward, then we will have a very tough 2009 election.