In Virginia, the GOP ticket is still leading by double digits with Bob McDonnell +14, Bill Bolling +13, and Ken Cuccinelli +16. McDonnell is leading with independents 63-33 and has 94% of the Republican vote. PPP's overall conclusion:
“The streak of good elections for Democrats in Virginia ends tomorrow,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans are going to sweep the statewide races and the only real suspense is by how much.”In New Jersey, Chris Christie is +6 (47%) over Jon Corzine (41%). PPP commented:
Chris Christie has widened his lead over Jon Corzine to six points, 47-41. Chris Daggett is at 11%.In NY-23, conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is leading over Democrat Bill Owens by + 16 (54%-38%). Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out Saturday and threw her support behind the Democrat which promps the question: should she repay the $900,000 to the Republican National Committee that they poured into her campaign?
“For most of the last three months the election had moved more and more in Jon Corzine’s direction but it appears that his momentum stopped about three weeks ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “As Chris Daggett’s support started to decline Christie’s went back up.”
PPP has further observations:
-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.Some other interesting observations by the PPP folks concerning NY-23 whose numbers came in far different than those from Siena and Research 2000:
-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.
-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.
-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.That can't be good news for the White House.
-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday.