Obama TV ads removed from VA airwaves

When Barack Obama began running TV ads in Virginia in June, John McCain had 44% to Obama's 47%. In August, the latest polling shows they are tied at 46%-46%. Obama spent $1,590,922 on advertising that lost 1% for him. The ads have now been stopped.

Ads have also been yanked from other red states where he had been advertising all summer and gained little traction, even losing percentage points in some states:

- Alaska - $333,129 spent. June average 45% for McCain to 41% for Obama. August average 49% McCain, 42% Obama. McCain was up 4%; Obama was up 1%.

- Florida - $7,165,078 spent. June average 44% McCain, 44% Obama. August average 48% McCain, 45% Obama. McCain gained 4%, Obama gained 1%.

- Georgia - $2,572,093 spent. June average 48% McCain, 42% Obama. August average 53% McCain, 44% Obama. McCain gained 5%, Obama gained 2%.

- Montana - $806,480 spent. June average 43% McCain, 48% Obama. August average 47% McCain, 47% Obama. McCain gained 4%, Obama lost 1%.

- North Carolina - $2,450,569 spent. June average 42% McCain, 44% Obama. August average 48% McCain, 43% Obama. McCain gained 6%, Obama lost 1%.

- North Dakota - $327,543 spent. July average 47% McCain, 46% Obama. August average 45% McCain, 42% Obama. McCain lost 2%, Obama lost 4%.

The McCain campaign has studied these numbers and writes:

The table provides an interesting comparison in the numbers. The change in his ballot position raises a variety of questions:

· Does this represent an overall shift in strategy; do they have to find a new path to 270 electoral votes.

· Does this represent a sign of things to come in other states?

· Is the Obama campaign planning to close down offices in states they have initially targeted.

RealClearPolitics.com compiled the following numbers on four Southern states that Obama hopes to carry:

Virginia: McCain 46%, Obama 45%
North Carolina: McCain 47%, Obama 43%
Georgia: McCain 50%, Obama 43%
Florida: McCain 47%, Obama 44%.

A just-released poll by Winthrop/ETV that Sean Hannity was discussing on his radio show today shows John McCain with a commanding lead over Obama in the South, perhaps a preview to a Southern sweep:

Republican Sen. John McCain enjoys a 16-point lead -- 51 percent to 35 percent -- among Southern voters over rival Democrat Sen. Barack Obama, a new poll by Winthrop University and ETV shows.

And, the further into the South you go, the larger McCain's lead grows, the poll of likely voters in 11 Southern states shows.

Likely voters in the Deep South -- those in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina -- preferred McCain by a 25-point margin, 56 percent to 31 percent.

Southern voters said what they want most in a president is honesty, experience and shared values. Southern voters rated McCain ahead of Obama in each of those categories.

They continued:

While political pundits have made much of Obama and Democrats trying to win over a Southern state or two from the Republicans in November, the Winthrop/ETV poll shows that will prove difficult.

"It's about keeping John McCain from sweeping the South. That's the key," said Scott Huffmon, associate professor of political science at Winthrop and director of the Winthrop/ETV Poll.

A question: Is Virginia really considered such a battleground state for the presidential race? Or are the Democrats trying to make everyone think so? With the number of campaign offices Obama has opened around the state, there must be significant financial investment. Like the recently discontinued TV ads, will they quietly begin closing offices if McCain's numbers continue to rise?

John McCain for President 2008