Sunday, March 08, 2009

Driving the backroads of Augusta County collecting petitions



Rural Augusta County is like rural America. Patriotism runs strong ... love of God, family, country are what keep these hard working people going. Many farm the land ... some have been on their land for generations. American flags are a frequent sight in the rural landscape.

Bullrushes in a creek at the Middlebrook General Store.



















Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 7, 2009

DJ's zinger of the day

Thanks for the chuckle, DJ!

Saturday, March 07, 2009

PEACH home schooler wins regional spelling bee

Congratulations to Andrew Traylor with PEACH (Parent Educators of Augusta County Homes) who won the 62nd Annual Regional Spelling Bee on Saturday.

Held at Monticello High School and broadcast on NBC 29, Andrew won out over 32 students from Waynesboro, Staunton, Augusta County, Albemarle County, Nelson County, Charlottesville, Greene County, Peabody School, Miller School, Covenant School, Fluvanna County, Tandem Friends School, and Stuart Hall. He will now participate in the National Spelling Bee to be held in Washington, DC.

I got the call Saturday while in the rural areas of Augusta County collecting assessment petitions for the Wednesday Board of Supervisors meeting ... a fellow home school dad called immediately after the contest concluded to say Andrew had won. Word spread fast.

Congratulations, Andrew! You make all home schoolers proud.

Update: The Waynesboro News Virginian, a co-sponsor of the spelling bee, has a top-of-the-fold front page story with a photo of Andrew.

In memory of Lance Cpl Daniel Todd Morris


This bridge on Spottswood Road in southern Augusta County was named in memory of Lance Cpl. Daniel Todd Morris who, at the age of 19, was killed in Iraq on February 14, 2007, during Operation Iraqi Freedom.

While in that part of the county today, I took this photo of the yellow ribbon-adorned sign.

It was two years ago when, on a windy mild February day, Lance Cpl. Morris was laid to rest not far from the bridge. He was an American hero.

God bless Lance Cpl. Morris' family.

Photo by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 7, 2009

Counting petitions for Augusta tax assessment meeting

Kurt Michael and Jason Bibeau talk with Francis Chester while the barn kitty sleeps on the desk.
Francis Chester talks about Wednesday's meeting.




Churchville attorney Francis Chester met with members of Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments on Saturday to count petition signatures in preparation of Wednesday's Board of Supervisors meeting. While working in the office, folks stopped by to drop off petitions while other petitions came in the mail, and others were picked up earlier in the day from county businesses and citizens.

The showdown will be Wednesday at 7 pm at the Government Center on Rt. 11 in Verona. Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and for information about Wednesday's meeting.

Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 7, 2009

Wow! 70 degrees in the Valley

For the second day in a row we will have 70-degree temps in the Shenandoah Valley. Snow on Monday, 70 degrees on Friday -- must be March in Virginia.

I'm heading out to continue collecting petitions that have been available throughout Augusta County for residents to sign if they want supervisors to roll back real estate assessments to the 2005 values. During my travels, I have enjoyed talking with farmers and property owners and residents who are concerned that government is not listening to them.

Petitions will be turned in by Churchville attorney Francis Chester on Wednesday at the Board of Supervisors meeting at the Government Center in Verona.

Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and for information about Wednesday's meeting.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

News Virginian's weekly "Three Up/Three Down" - Augusta's "Gang of Six"

The Waynesboro News Virginian's weekly THREE DOWN this week features the Augusta County real estate assessment battle between Supervisor Tracy Pyles and the GANG OF SIX -- the other supervisors on the Board:
THREE DOWN

Well, surprise, surprise, the Augusta County reassessment has been certified. It happened Friday, five days before the big showdown Wednesday between angry taxpayers and supervisors and three days earlier than officials told The News Virginian the event would take place. Pastures District Supervisor Tracy Pyles urged the GANG OF SIX, the other half-dozen supervisors, to delay certification until after Wednesday’s supervisors meeting. State law gave Augusta until March 31 to certify. So why the big rush? We’ll see Wednesday, when we expect the Gang to tell petitioners demanding a rollback to 2005 values that the deal’s done and hands are tied. That should go over well.
The News Virginian has covered this issue since it began last fall. The showdown will be Wednesday at the Government Center in Verona at 7 pm.

Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and for information about Wednesday's meeting.

Augusta County certifies reassessments

Augusta County went ahead and certified their real estate assessments on Friday, 25 days sooner than required and five days before the March 11 Board of Supervisors meeting that is shaping up to be a showdown between property owners and supervisors. The move angered some residents who questioned why the rush to certify.

The March 11 meeting at the Government Center in Verona will see Supervisor Tracy Pyles pitted against what the Waynesboro News Virginian has affectionately dubbed "The Gang of Six" -- the other six supervisors who have vowed to see the process through instead of working with Mr. Pyles in exploring other possibilities to relieve the tax burden on constituents.

Churchville attorney Francis Chester will address the board Wednesday to present thousands of signatures on petitions that have been circulated throughout the county since the end of January.

Local media who have covered the case since the beginning, including the organizational townhall meeting of Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments on February 3 when over 600 residents turned out to protest their assessments, will be there.

Farmers, landowners, blue collar, white collar ... all will be at the Government Center Wednesday night in what is shaping up to be a major tax revolt tea party in Augusta County.

Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and for information about Wednesday's meeting.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

"Eighty-One" magazine looks at Augusta reassessment battle

Churchville resident Larry Ernst weighs in on the Augusta County real estate assessment battle in the March edition of Eighty-One Magazine. Writing in "Out of Control: Real power over local property assessments resides far away," Mr. Ernst provides insight from a personal point-of-view and offers some sage words of advice. He begins with his own experience:
I returned home, vexed, from my appointment with Augusta’s Board of Assessors. The young man representing Blue Ridge Mass Appraisal (BRMA) had been polite, listened to my appeal. At his side, a senior county resident added a local touch, an air of legitimacy. But the outcome of my appeal will be dictated by BRMA parameters, not market realities. The game is fixed. In March, the assessors will mail revised number crunches. Supervisors will then conduct a burlesque of due process, offering “hearings” to a still-irate but smaller number of victims. Form without substance: an exercise in futility.
Bemoaning the fact that local government is not "local" in many issues, he continued:
Today, the barriers to wielding influence over local matters are far higher than ever. Virginia officials have abdicated. Ginning up political pressure against them in a county the size of Augusta would require a full-scale campaign, with phone banks, printed flyers, ads in papers, mass meetings and mobs at the Government Center, bearing tar buckets and feathers. Supervisors would be intimidated by such a show. Class action litigation would also get their attention. Such drastic (albeit well-motivated) efforts would be popular. but futile. Remedy is urgently needed, but equity for taxpayers will not be thus achieved. The supervisors, those artful dodgers, are not the real culprits. The focus is wrong. The assessment problem, as horrendous as it is, is the tip of the iceberg.
True enough ... it's the tip of the iceberg ... but at least Supervisor Tracy Pyles, Churchville attorney Francis Chester, and Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments are all trying to do something by standing up for their fellow citizens and going up against the Government.

After giving background on how local power was taken away, Mr. Ernst added:
Locally, the market began to tank in 2007. Large tracts and homes wouldn’t sell, even at 2005 assessments. Instead of smelling the coffee and squelching higher 2009 assessments, Augusta County hired BRMA.... When the 2008 real estate implosion could no longer be ignored, contractor benchmarks were reduced for homes, but land revaluations were allowed to soar. 2009 assessment notices were delayed.

Now, property owners are being asked to stick their heads in the sand with the supervisors, pretend fair market values are higher, be thankful assessments aren’t more astronomical and accept the illusion of well-managed county government. Verona can’t look us in the eye, or itself in the mirror. It hopes to get blood out of a turnip or (Plan B) delay our trip to the poor house. It has shrugged off complaints, figuring eventually we’ll give up, go away and pay up. We’re in thrall to a regionalized Ponzi scheme.
Ending the article, Mr. Ernst offers words of advice to some of those involved in the battle:
As our influence over our lives decreases, as our independence diminishes, as the web of rules and regulations tightens around us, as we have our pockets picked at quadrennial intervals (extortion under color of law), our heritage, our prosperity and our constitutional freedoms have gradually, unnoticed, become things of the past.

Augusta taxpayers: Recognize that you have been regionalized and federalized.

Francis Chester: If you do litigate, include CSPDC and Federal Region 3 defendants in your suit.

Supervisors: The political reality is that you have been marginalized. However, you are the elected representatives of the people of Augusta County. They still look to you. Start being honest with them. Admit that none of us has the answer. But we can begin by looking to our County motto: Redeant In Aurum Secula Priscum. “Let us return to that first golden age,” to a good time, when we governed ourselves.
Petitions asking the Board of Supervisors to roll back assessment values to 2005 levels will be turned in at the supervisors meeting this Wednesday, March 11, at 7 pm at the Government Center in Verona. All residents who are concerned about real estate assessments are encouraged to attend.

Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and information about Wednesday's meeting.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

Friday, March 06, 2009

Glenn Beck meetup in Waynesboro

"We Surround Them" viewing party March 13

"We Surroung Them ... the Unveiling" will be shown on Fox News Channel on Friday, March 13, from 5-6 pm. A local meetup will be held at the Sidelines Sports Pub located in Waynesboro across from the Wal-Mart.

A local Glenn Beck fan has talked with management and the big screen TV will be tuned to "We Surround Them" ... so come on out! You may want to start showing up around 4:30 or so to be sure of getting a seat. Glenn writes:
Have you ever felt like you're the only one in your community who see's what's happening to America? Well, you're not and on Friday March 13th at 5pm ET on the Fox News Channel, Glenn Beck ... and you ... will prove it.

Many Americans, both Republican and Democrat, understand that Washington is broken. Many times it seems that the political solution is the problem. No more. Our founders knew the solution is We The People.

This will be a must-see show and we highly recommend that you watch it with friends, family, and neighbors who share your concerns.
At a time when many Americans are feeling overtaxed ... when they feel as if they don't have a voice ... conservative talk show host Glenn Beck is offering a rally for hard-working Americans to gather and reinforce the principles they believe in.

From GlennBeck.com:
Do you watch the direction that America is being taken in and feel powerless to stop it?

Do you believe that your voice isn’t loud enough to be heard above the noise anymore?

Do you read the headlines everyday and feel an empty pit in your stomach ... as if you’re completely alone?

If so, then you’ve fallen for the Wizard of Oz lie. While the voices you hear in the distance may sound intimidating, as if they surround us from all sides—the reality is very different. Once you pull the curtain away you realize that there are only a few people pressing the buttons, and their voices are weak. The truth is that they don’t surround us at all.

We surround them.

So, how do we show America what’s really behind the curtain? Below are nine simple principles. If you believe in at least seven of them, then we have something in common. I urge you to read the instructions at the end for how to help make your voice heard.

The Nine Principles:
1. America is good.
2. I believe in God and He is the Center of my Life.
3. I must always try to be a more honest person than I was yesterday.
4. The family is sacred. My spouse and I are the ultimate authority, not the government.
5. If you break the law you pay the penalty. Justice is blind and no one is above it.
6. I have a right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, but there is no guarantee of equal results.
7. I work hard for what I have and I will share it with who I want to. Government cannot force me to be charitable.
8. It is not un-American for me to disagree with authority or to share my personal opinion.
9. The government works for me. I do not answer to them, they answer to me.

You Are Not Alone
If you agree with at least seven of those principles, then you are not alone. Please send a digital version of your picture to: wesurroundthem@foxnews.com and then stay tuned to the radio and television shows over the coming weeks to see how we intend to pull back the curtain.

12 Values We Believe In
Honesty ... Reverence ... Hope ... Thrift ... Humility ... Charity ... Sincerity ... Moderation ... Hard Work ... Courage ... Personal Responsibility ... Friendship.
Check here for participating radio stations that will carry "We Surround Them."

Together, America ... we can make a difference!

Augusta reassessment to be certified today

The Waynesboro News Virginian is reporting that Augusta County is moving forward with certifying real estate reassessment. As reported today:
The seven members of the Augusta County Board of Assessors are scheduled to sign and certify the Augusta County reassessment at 1 p.m. today, just five days before petitions calling for a rollback are to be presented to supervisors.

Next week’s supervisors meeting – expected to be a showdown between angry taxpayers and supervisors – did not affect the timing of certification, assessors board co-Chairman Walter Brown said Thursday.
...
The board of assessors, which was granted a certification extension, is required to sign the reassessment by March 31.

Supervisor Tracy Pyles said the board could have waited until after the public meeting.
“Obviously there was some effort to get it done before March 11, which I think is unfortunate when you have that many people wanting to be heard,” Pyles said. “I think this has been a very rushed bit of work … It’s just a hot potato that they’re flipping out of their hands … I hope there’s still some options available for us.”
Wednesday's Board of Supervisors meeting will see county residents concerned about their increased real estate assessments attending to speak out and be heard at a time when many are feeling disenfranchised by their elected representatives.

Click here for more information about Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments, to sign the petition, and information about Wednesday's meeting.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

Bob McDonnell in Augusta County





















The Bob McDonnell for Governor campaign made a visit to the Valley Thursday afternoon to rally GOP leadership in the upper 6th District as the former Attorney General greeted those who attended and answered questions.

Vintage Bob McDonnell joked and laughed and called on familiar faces in the room, recognizing Del. Ben Cline and Del. Steve Landes as they arrived. A cross section of activists and donors, eager to turn Virginia back to Republican red, attentively listened, jotted notes, and nodded their heads in agreement as the candidate laid out his platform and issues.

All were encouraged to recruit delegates for the Republican Party of Virginia Convention to be held May 29-30, 2009, in Richmond. Conservative radio and TV host Sean Hannity will be at the RPV convention and, in a year that will see only two gubernatorial elections nationwide, a lot of attention will be put on Virginia. Earlier this week Sean Hannity highlighted Bob's momentum, mentioning the Rasmussen Poll that shows Bob 7 points ahead of Terry McAuliffe, an increase of 2 points over the lead Bob had in December.

Watch for news coverage of Mr. McDonnell to continue as he crisscrosses the Commonwealth to ask voters to trust him to take the reins of state government for the next four years.

Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 5, 2009

Barbara Bush recovers from heart surgery

Best wishes go out to former First Lady Barbara Bush, 83, as she recuperates from heart surgery. Fox News reported:
Former first lady Barbara Bush was making "an excellent recovery" following 2 1/2-hour heart surgery to replace her aortic valve and was joking with hospital staff, her lead surgeon said Thursday.
...
He said Mrs. Bush awakened earlier than most elderly patients do after undergoing the "very routine procedure" and started joking with the doctors.

"She recognized all of us immediately and then she started cheering us up with some humorous comments as soon as we took that tube out," Lawrie said, referring to the intubation tube in her throat, noting that she gently cajoled him for having "misled" her about post-operative pain.

"She continued to do very well," he said.

Her husband, former President George H.W. Bush, said "she looks well to me, and beautiful," as he choked back tears, describing the operation as one of the most stressful days of his life.
The Bushes have been married 64 years.

Prayers and get well wishes to Mrs. Bush.

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Part 5: "The mother of bubbles ... real estate bubble & tax appraisal"

Guest Financial Post
by D. Sherman Okst



Look, I’m not an economist, I’m not a financial planner so don’t go out and sell your stocks based on what I said or am going to say. But I do follow the economy closely. I have only seen a handful of economists calling this thing what it really is -- an insolvency crisis.

The USA is in debt for about $10.8 trillion ($10,800,000,000,000.00.) We have earnings/GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of about $12 trillion pre meltdown. That GDP figure is about as cooked as Enron’s books. Clinton implemented the Boskin Commission Findings, which used Hedonics (Greek for feels good) to adjust GDP. They use a bogus deflation factor and imputations. Let’s talk imputations here, if you own a house they calculate what you would pay in rent and then add that rent figure to GDP, even though you don’t pay rent.

Basically, GDP is off by almost 40%.

Now you don’t have consumers, which account for 70% of GDP borrowing like they did. In 2008 consumers put 9 billion dollars on their credit cards to buy coffee at Starbucks.

Take all this away from GDP and I’d estimate you are down at about 6 trillion in GDP. Now lets look at off balance USA debt. Roughly, according to the book I.O.U.S.A. we have liabilities/obligations for Social Security, Medicare Parts A & D that amount to about $53,000,000,000,000.00 ($53 trillion).

Add all this up and we have about $65,000,000,000,000.00 and we “make” $6,000,000,000,000.00.

Those, to me, are Enron numbers.

So basically I see the insolvent giving money to the insolvent and I ask myself how on God’s earth is this going to work?

Something tells me it won’t work and that the next 10 or 20 years aren’t going to look like the past 10 or 20 years. I think this county will really need to pull together. I’m talking neighbor helping neighbor, county helping citizen and citizen helping county. I don’t see how paying more than a home is worth, or, will be worth, in taxes will help anyone.

One thing is certain: We aren’t in Kansas anymore, these are different times. And please, don’t look at the guy sitting in the car that is doing 120 mph and headed for a brick wall as a pessimist because he is yelling, “Swerve or slow down.” He isn’t the one driving, but we ALL need to be driving our Congressional leaders to realize, at the very least, that this is an insolvency crisis and the credit crisis is a symptom of insolvency and you have to treat the disease, not the symptom and giving the symptom what got it sick will only make things worse.

This is the last in a five-part series. Previous: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.
---
D. Sherman Okst is an Augusta County resident who with his wife runs a small technology business. He reads extensively and studies the economy blogging as "Davos" at the Daily Digest, a column for Chris Martenson, which gets 1.5+ million reads a year. Sherman writes code, was a high school computer science teacher, and ex-airline captain with 15,000 hours and 18 years of service. He was a builder, managed a lumber yard and as a kid was a mate on a fishing boat. Sherman has also had work published in a few magazines.

"Freedom Not Fear" ... stop Card Check

Sign the petition at American Solutions. "Freedom Not Fear" ... stop card check and protect workers' privacy.

News Virginian editorial: "Supervisors, take a stand"

Augusta County real estate battle leading to tax revolt tea party

The Waynesboro News Virginian continues to follow the tax revolt issue in Augusta County as the days tick off the calendar leading to March 11's Board of Supevisors meeting. Residents have been urged to attend and support Churchville attorney Francis Chester as he turns in thousands of names on petitions. Feedback indicates a good turnout.

In "Supervisors, take a stand," the NV's editorial talks about Wayne supervisor Wendell Coleman who has been quoted as saying the county assessments will be a cakewalk compared to budget cuts. The NV's editorial today responded:
We aren’t buying it. Neither are Augusta taxpayers.

They are preparing for what Lynn Mitchell calls on her SWAC Girl blog a “tax revolt tea party” Wednesday at the supervisors meeting, during which Churchville lawyer Francis Chester plans to present petitions demanding a rollback of the reassessment to 2005. Property owners are predictably angry that values have increased by an average of more than a fourth. Supervisors like Coleman are unpredictably deaf to the cries of outrage.

Apart from the Gang of Six, a seventh supervisor, Tracy Pyles of the Pastures District, has been working feverishly to sift reason from thick obduracy, so far to no avail. He backs Chester’s call, but has been rebuffed by the Gang on legal grounds.
Read the entire editoral here.

The Board of Supervisors meeting is March 11 at 7 pm at the Government Center in Verona. For more information or to sign the petition, go here.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

LTE: County officials went after Francis Chester?

A letter to the editor in the March 3 Staunton News Leader:
While reading Feb 27 issue of The News Leader, I noticed a front page story about Francis Chester owing the county "more than $2,500 in taxes." I am still trying to put this story into perspective.

Will any other citizen who disagrees with the county be publicly humiliated or is this special treatment just for Mr. Chester?

Did (Augusta County Treasurer) Mr. Homes call the Leader to report this breathtaking news or did (reporter) Trevor Brown dig up this high impact dirt on his own?

Either way, someone needs a lesson on social ethics.
Read the rest of R.G. Howard's letter here.

Snowy Shenandoah Valley photos



Village of Westview in western Augusta County.













Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 3, 2009

Rush is in the air....

Fishersville Mike comments on Obama's failure to shut down Rush. The vast right-wing conspiracy is sprouting wings.

"Underestimate Rush Limbaugh at your own peril"

From The Journey. Heh.

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Never forget ... "Run for the Fallen"


I recently posted about Run for the Fallen and the locations of flags remembering and honoring the three young Marines from Augusta County who were killed in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Today I received the following from fellow SWAC blogger Bob over at The Journey:
Lynn -- Thank you for mentioning Run for the Fallen. I was coming back from hiking in Shenandoah last summer when I came upon the memorial at the top of the pass. I read the names and cried a bit. Please feel free to use this photo of the flags. I thought it was a beautiful tribute to some beautiful lives. -- Bob
On August 13, 2008, Bob posted about finding the American flags:
Today's Heroes
Modern Soldiers Deserve Our Respect and Admiration

Having given up on the mainstream media before the surge, I suppose this is old news to some, but I found this group, Veterans for Freedom, a breath of fresh air. Their mission is simply to make sure the real story gets told. Indeed there is plenty of heroic good to report and I think it is a shame that the press goes silent when there is progress.

Perhaps it is just the "bad news sells papers" phenomenom but the young men and women who put themselves in harm's way deserve better from a free press that thrives in a free nation who owes that freedom to the sacrifice of such men and women.

So stop by their Website and learn more about their mission.
I agree with Bob ... we can never repay our military for the freedom we enjoy due to their service to country. The very least we can do is recognize them, thank them ... and never forget.

Photo by Bob K.

Part 4: "The mother of all bubbles ... real estate bubble & tax appraisals"

Guest Financial Post
by D. Sherman Okst


Let's talk banks. First, Asset Backed Securities, Derivatives, and the toxic crud that insures them is mumbo jumbo to most. If you are unfamiliar with these "securities," I'd advocate that you take a minute or two and watch this short video.


Now, lets talk banks.

Big banks. A lot of small banks were quite prudent but, sadly, they are getting punished for investing wisely.

Look at Citi here. (1.2 trillion) $1,207,007,000,000.00 in assets and then they have $35,645,429,000,000.00 in Derivates. Think about that. If they nationalize the banks, they have to write off the toxic junk. The ramifications of that would be beyond profound. Investors purchased this trash, and I’m talking pension funds with retirees on fixed incomes and so on.

Then you have the AIGs of the world who “secured” or “insured” this trash.

I’ll leave it to your imagination here as to how this could play out.

Now lets talk microeconomics and the local real estate market.

Here are the facts.

Jobs:


Sales Figures:



The DOM is the Days on the Market. The longer period indicates a softer market.

Now take a peak at the inventory of homes. Not a good sign.

Then you have new home starts:



In Summary:

I think it is fine to agree that the average price went from $186,529.00 in 2005 to $223,566.00 in 2008. But let’s not look at that as linear, because like the chart it was anything but. Remember that in 2006 the house prices shot up to $331,323.00 before the LOCAL bubble popped in 2007. Anything but linear. In fact, other then the dates, it follows the chart perfectly.

Remember, prices are sill falling and will still fall.

Unless you are going to do an assessment yearly as prices sink like the Titanic, it is not ethical to do an assessment that doesn’t take into account the precipitous price dive that we are in now. The downside (cliff diving) part of this bubble.

Previous: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
---
D. Sherman Okst is an Augusta County resident who with his wife runs a small technology business. He reads extensively and studies the economy blogging as "Davos" at the Daily Digest, a column for Chris Martenson, which gets 1.5+ million reads a year. Sherman writes code, was a high school computer science teacher, and ex-airline captain with 15,000 hours and 18 years of service. He was a builder, managed a lumber yard and as a kid was a mate on a fishing boat. Sherman has also had work published in a few magazines.

Part 3: "The mother of all bubbles ... real estate bubble & tax appraisals"

Financial Guest Post
By D. Sherman Okst


Let’s talk Ron Paul for a second.

Paul is a medical doctor, an OBGYN, and a Republican Congressman from Texas. Personally, I wish we had a few more like him. He is one guy on the hill who knows the economy. Here is what he says about cheap money, “It causes people to do stupid things.” (Video: see the 3:25 minute point.)

I don’t think he was talking so much about the investor who thought buying a good house for too much meant that he’d be able to sell it later for even more money. No, I think he was referring to the investment bankers who created what Warren Buffett calls "weapons of financial mass destruction."

What I am driving at here is this: To clear out a glut of inventory, and 24 million homes in the mother of all gluts, you need buyers.

And a lot of them.

The issue is going to be this: Since financial institutions aren’t creating the loans that created money for buyers who would have been better off renting, then who the heck is going to buy these homes? There aren’t going to be subprime borrowers, or buyers to assume debt from a whole periphery of other creative loans that are no longer being offered.

I mean, the last “positive” sign of qualified buyers I saw was a piece on a busload of Chinese millionaires looking for second homes. Most of them said they’d wait until prices fell more.

Compound this “little” detail with the fact that the economy is hurting people who were qualified buyers.

Housing prices won’t, in my estimation, round out for this “smooth” landing that the first chart indicates with its pretty little dashed line. What possible positive event would cause a smooth landing as the first chart indicates?

Previous: Part 1, Part 2
---
D. Sherman Okst is an Augusta County resident who with his wife runs a small technology business. He reads extensively and studies the economy blogging as "Davos" at the Daily Digest, a column for Chris Martenson, which gets 1.5+ million reads a year. Sherman writes code, was a high school computer science teacher, and ex-airline captain with 15,000 hours and 18 years of service. He was a builder, managed a lumber yard and as a kid was a mate on a fishing boat. Sherman has also had work published in a few magazines.

Tax revolt tea party ... "major event for the Valley" on March 11

The word is circulating: "This is a major event for the Valley."

The March 11 Augusta County tax revolt tea party will take place at the Board of Supervisors meeting. Petitions are being gathered and signatures counted, word is spreading from neighbor to neighbor, email updates are going out, and the buzz continues.

The independent-minded and self-reliant folks of the Shenandoah Valley are speaking up against outrageous real estate assessments at a time when many have lost jobs, home prices have fallen 18% nationwide in the last quarter of 2008, and housing starts are the lowest since 1959.

Fixed income, retired, farmers, blue collar, white collar, small landowner, large landowner ... this revolt crosses all political and socio-economic lines.

People are fed up.

Join us March 11 at 7 pm at the Government Center in Verona to send a message to the six members of the Board of Supervisors who have not called for rolling back assessments to the 2005 values. Speak up, address the board, let your voice be heard!

Email if you have questions or want to sign a petition asking that real estate assessments be rolled back.

Previous posts:
Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments ... latest update
Tax revolt ... the eyes of America are on Augusta
News Virginian: Thumbs up for Chester, thumbs down for county officials
Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments to turn out on March 11
Augusta tax revolt tea party shaping up for March 11
"Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments"
Augusta Free Press: "Supes duped by legal jargon"

Many more posts are available....

Monday, March 02, 2009

Rush: "... you never abandon people who stood up for you"

"My parents taught me when I was growing up that you always stood behind people who defended you, that you never abandon people who stood up for you and defended you against assault."
Rush Limbaugh (3/2/09)

Rush Limbaugh responded to Michael Steele today on his radio show.

Hundreds of home schoolers stand up for their rights

If there's one thing home schoolers understand, it's government. Parents teach their children American history, geography, and government. Home schooled students are encouraged to participate in volunteering for campaigns even before they are old enough to vote ... and then they are encouraged to register to vote as soon as they turn 18.

New Hampshire's legislature has proposed passing a stronger bill that would hold home schooling families to twice as much reporting to the state government as before. At a time when most states are loosening the restrictions, NH is threatening the freedom and liberties of school choice advocates.

What happened in NH? A thousand home schoolers turned out to protest HB 367:
If passed, the bill would require home schoolers to double the amount of reporting currently required and would allow a school superintendant or principal to determine if the home school program should continue or be terminated.

The legislation has angered many home schoolers who showed up in record numbers when the bill was being debated in Concord.

"There were about a thousand home schoolers there. It was a record-breaking crowd, never been that many home schoolers," [HSLDA lawyer Mike] Donnelly notes. "In fact some of the people at the state house said that they've never seen such a large crowd inside ever."

Donnelly says he and about 100 home schoolers were able to give testimony. "Well if it passed, this would become one of the most restrictive [home school] laws in the country," he adds. He states New Hampshire's situation is in stark contrast to the trend in other parts of the country where states are reducing the regulations placed on home schoolers. Donnelly says that the legislation will come up for a vote in early- to mid-March.
More proposed laws ... more people standing up for their rights....

We have lost a hero ... Lt. Col. Jeff White


He spent 18 months in Iraq ... he returned home to his wife and three young children a month ago ... he survived war. But on Sunday he was struck down by a heart attack that killed him.

His name was Lt. Col. Jeff White.

Many tributes are coming out of Harrisonburg today. This one, by Valley Family Forum leader Dean Welty, said it well:
A Mighty Warrior for Family, Faith, and Freedom

We were deeply saddened to learn yesterday of the death of Lt. Col. Jeff White, a resident of the Valley and a close friend of the Forum who had just returned about one month ago from an 18-month tour in Iraq.

Jeff was struck by a massive heart attack while singing in the choir of his family church in Texas where he had just been re-united with his wife Jocelyn and their three children: Jane, Jeanine, and Jedediah.

His contribution of service to his Lord, his country, and to all who knew him exceeds our ability to measure or to fully appreciate. He was a devoted husband, father, and loyal friend whose bold and uncompromising commitment to biblical values and to the enduring principles of our nation’s founding was an encouragement, an inspiration, and a challenge to all of us.

We will miss him greatly, and ask that you remember the family in your prayers.

In Sorrow for Our Loss but with Deepest Gratitude for a Race Well Run, a Life Well Lived, and a Rich Legacy of Service for Us All.

Dean
Ray Schneider, Harrisonburg GOP secretary and newsletter editor, sent out the following information:
Jeff's funeral will be in his home in Tullahoma, Tennessee where his mother lives. The family has asked that flowers be directed to the Tullahoma Funeral Home where the point of contact is Bob Burt at 931-455-4567.

I have forwarded emails of condolence sent to me to Jocelyn White and she asked me to thank you all for your prayers and your caring.
God bless this family at a time of such grief. Who knows God's plan ... to allow this man to survive war only to return home and die this way? Our prayers and thoughts are with Jocelyn and the children ... and our eternal thanks to this military man who served his God, served his family, and served our nation. He is truly an American hero.

Updated 3-4-09 - from Dean Welty:
Jocelyn White has informed us that the funeral for Lt. Col. Jeff White will be held at his mother’s home in Tennessee on Saturday. There is no word yet on whether there will be a later memorial service in the Valley.

She has also advised that instead of flowers, friends can make a contribution in Jeff’s memory to the Centurion Bible Society of the Shenandoah Valley, which he founded four years ago to raise money for ROTC graduates from JMU, or to the Valley Family Forum – “two organizations that were close to Jeff’s heart”.

You may send your condolences with enclosed gift if you so choose to 1739 Massanetta Springs Rd., Harrisonburg, VA 22801.

Humbled by Jeff’s heart.

Dean
Update: Harrisonburg Daily News Record editorial remembers Jeff White.

Augusta Citizens Against Unfair Assessments ... latest updates

1) Time to turn in assessment petitions
Petitions should be returned this week with a March 9 deadline. There are three ways to return them:

-- Mail to Francis Chester (address on petition).
-- Drop off at Francis Chester's law office (address on petition)
-- Let us know you need petitions picked up by responding to this email.

2) Libraries agree to display meeting notice
(From www.swacgirl.blogspot.com)
In February, when the tax battle began in Augusta County, a petition asking supervisors to roll back real estate assessments to 2005 values was placed in the Churchville Public Library. It was later removed, reportedly at the request of a county official.

The libraries said they had a policy that no "political" petitions could be displayed. This, Mr. Chester argued, was not a political petition but rather a petition of the people about an issue of interest to the community. The Staunton News Leader agreed.

In a victory for Mr. Chester, the libraries have agreed to allow a notice to be posted with information about the upcoming March 11 Board of Supervisors meeting:

3) March 11, 2009 - Board of Supervisors Meeting
The petitions that are being circulated around Augusta County will be turned into the Board of Supervisors on Wednesday March 11, 2009, at 7 pm at the Government Center in Verona. Please plan to attend. This will also be the opportunity for those who want to address the Board.

4) Parking
A large crowd is expected March 11. It would help if parking closest to the door could be left for our elderly residents and the handicapped.

5) Seating
You may want to arrive early on March 11 for good seating.

6) Petitions available
Petitions are still available asking the Board of Supervisors to roll back real estate assessments to 2004 levels:

-- Online: Here is the location of the online petition.
-- Hard copy: Contact us if you want an emailed petition.

Hard copy locations throughout community include:

Tractor Supply (Staunton)
Zelma's (Staunton)
Jiffy Mart on Grubert Ave (Staunton)
Memorial Baptist Church (Staunton)
Obaugh Pontiac-Buick-GMC (Staunton)
Eavers Tire (Fishersville)
7-11 Store (Fishersville - Rt. 250 at Woodrow Wilson Rehab)
Obaugh Chevrolet-Buick (Waynesboro)
Bookkeeping Management (Waynesboro)
Ace Gift Store - Acedemy of CE, Inc (Waynesboro)
Mark Martin's Auto World (Rt. 250 west of Waynesboro)
Pets 'n Pals (Waynesboro)
Middlebrook General Store (Middlebrook)
Jake's Convenience Store (Rt. 250 west of Staunton)
Riverside Grocery (Churchville)
T-Bone Tooter (Churchville)
Eavers Tire (Stuarts Draft)
Eavers Amaco (Stuarts Draft)
Greenville Trading Post (Greenville)
Joe's Barber Shop (Greenville)
BB&T (Greenville)
Chancellor Stone (Vesuvius)
Gertie's Store (Vesuvius)
Midway Machine & Parts (Steeles Tavern)
Augusta Co-Op (Fairfield)
Junction (Buffalo Gap)
Deerfield Convenience Store (Deerfield)
West Augusta Convenience Store (W. Augusta)
New Hope Grocery (Rt. 608 & 621 in New Hope)

7) Board of Supervisors Contact Information
Supervisors may be reached for comments about real estate assessments:
- Augusta Government Center Phone: (540) 245-5600
- County Assessor's Office: (540) 245-5628
- Commissioner of the Revenue: (540) 245-5640

- Jeremy Shifflett, Beverley Manor: 540.294.2289
- Gerald Garber, Middle River: 540. 234-8388
- Larry Howdyshell, North River: 540. 350-2591
- Tracy Pyles, Pastures: 540. 337-7010
- Nancy Sorrells, Riverheads: 540. 377-6390
- David Beyeler, South River: 540. 943-3202
- Wendell Coleman, Wayne: 540. 430-1350

8) Feb. 3 meeting update
The townhall meeting held on Tuesday night, February 3, was a huge success with 600 residents attending to learn from Supervisor Tracy Pyles and Churchville attorney Francis Chester how to make their voices heard at the Government Center.

9) Thank you, Augusta County!
One person wrote on Facebook that Augusta County residents were "packed like sardines" in the meeting Tuesday night and added, "But they were 600 of the nicest people I've ever met." We heard not one grumble or complaint as we scrambled to accommodate the large crowd. Thank you for your patience and understanding. And thank you for your kind words of encouragement.

Together, Augusta ... we can make a difference!

Augusta tax victory: Libraries allow posting of assessment meeting notice

In February, when the tax battle began in Augusta County, a petition asking supervisors to roll back real estate assessments to 2005 values was placed in the Churchville Public Library. It was later removed reportedly at the request of a county official.

Churchville attorney Francis Chester sued County Administrator Pat Coffield to ask that petitions be allowed in the libraries. The suit was withdrawn when Mr. Coffield said it was not he but the Library Board that decides what is allowed.

The libraries then said they had a policy that no "political" petitions could be displayed. This, Mr. Chester argued, was not a political petition but rather a petition of the people about an issue of interest to the community. The Staunton News Leader agreed.

In a victory for Mr. Chester, the libraries have agreed to allow a notice to be posted with information about the upcoming March 11 Board of Supervisors meeting:

Real Estate Tax
Assessment
Mass Meeting
March 11, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Government Center
(Rt. 11) Verona, VA
"We the people" will have an opportunity to express our thoughts concerning the 2009 Real Estate Tax Assessments for Augusta County.
Be involved and let your voice be heard. We need participation!!!
Residents do not have to be property owners.
If you wish to address the board ... come early and sign in.
Francis Chester, Atty., Pro Bono Populi
540-337-7270
3581 Churchville Avenue, Churchville, VA 24421

Want your voice heard? Show up on March 11 and join your neighbors in sending a message to the Board of Supervisors about this very important issue.

The Shenandoah Valley is closed ... Snow Day!






It seems as if almost everything is closed down today in the Shenandoah Valley after a weekend snow storm left varying amounts of snow and high winds caused wind chills to drop dramatically. An overnight low of 17 degrees will pale compared with predicted single digit lows expected tonight. High wind warnings are in effect as blizzard-like conditions continue today with blowing snow and drifts.

No newspaper delivery. Local courts didn't open. Public schools are closed as are private and Christian schools. Local colleges -- James Madison University, Mary Baldwin College, Blue Ridge Community College -- did not open their doors.

Even my husband's employer is shut down until noon today, a rare event, but an indication of the rough shape of roadways. Snow drifts, freezing surfaces, and traffic accidents have caused difficult traveling conditions.

WHSV TV-3's First Alert forecast has much of the Valley under a winter storm warning through 2 pm for up to 6" of snow ... right now it's sunny, windy, and cold outside -- 21 degrees -- but no sight of snow. Very cold tonight with single digit temperatures.

We cleared the deck Sunday only to have an addition 4-5" of snow overnight making our overall total around 7" for this storm. Of course, with the high winds blowing snow in open spaces, we have snow piled on bushes and against the house in one area ... while limbs have been blown bare of snow in other places.

Snow day ... get outside and play!

Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 2, 2009

Got $7,500? That will buy a house in Detroit...

From the Chicago Tribune on Detroit's housing crisis:
It may be tough to get financing for a new car these days, but in Detroit you can buy a house with a credit card.

The median price of a home sold in Detroit in December was $7,500, according to Realcomp, a listing service.

Not $75,000. Remove a zero—it's seven thousand five hundred dollars, substantially less than the lowest-price car on the new-car market.
H/T Davos

Part 2: "The mother of all bubbles ... the real estate bubble & tax appraisals"

Financial Guest Post
By D. Sherman Okst




So how big is the real estate bubble?

It is about seven times as big as any bubble we have ever seen before. There are a lot of misnomers when it comes to real estate. The biggest one is that house prices always go up. That is wrong. House prices really follow inflation and deflation. Take a look at the chart below. You can see that for 110 years house prices have for the most part been in a channel between 100,000 and 120,000 dollars adjusted for inflation.



Now lets look at the past two bubbles (green) and the current bubble (yellow).

Without any doubt, this is the mother of all bubbles.

Worse, no economist I read has really predicted how bad it is. In the 60 minute clip they came close. The problem of dot connection, yet once again, is apparent. Here is the issue: These economists on the video are griping over 4.5-5.0 million homes in inventory, an increase from 2.3 million homes, an 11-month glut of homes. But, and this is a very big “BUT,” THERE ARE OVER 19 MILLION VACANT HOMES.

Vacant homes indicate quite a few things and none of them are positive: Investors that didn’t get rich got stuck, or are at the very best sitting with homes they can’t even get qualified renters in, people bought vacation homes and shouldn’t have, and people who bought homes and shouldn’t have. Then you have people who should have bought homes and then were adversely effected by those who shouldn’t have. Vacant homes inevitably detract value from adjacent populated homes.

Banks are slow to put homes on the market. Many investors are waiting this out as economic pundits call for bottoms in the near future (trust me, I’m not one of them). Many people can’t get a job elsewhere or can’t sell to move. Bottom line, the “Overhang” that they talk about in the 60 Minutes video is predicated on 4.5-5.0 million homes. It really is an OVERHANG of about 24 million homes when you add the vacant 19 million to the on-the-market 5 million– and as the video says, it is going to get worse as wave two (Alt-A’s and Option Arm) defaults roll to shore.

Think Tsunami.

If Wave 1 caused the Dow to drop from 14,000 at the height of the real estate bubble to low 7,000s now, then what do you think Wave 2 that they talk about in 60 minutes will do to the economy and to real estate prices and the stock market?

As an aside, you can also see the tech bubble of the late nineties in the above chart.

Previous: Part 1.
---
D. Sherman Okst is an Augusta County resident who with his wife runs a small technology business. He reads extensively and studies the economy blogging as "Davos" at the Daily Digest, a column for Chris Martenson, which gets 1.5+ million reads a year. Sherman writes code, was a high school computer science teacher, and ex-airline captain with 15,000 hours and 18 years of service. He was a builder, managed a lumber yard and as a kid was a mate on a fishing boat. Sherman has also had work published in a few magazines.

Home schoolers ... future of GOP?

~14-year-old home schooler wows CPAC~

His name is Jonathan Krohn, he's 14 years old ... and he made a huge impression on those attending CPAC over the weekend when he addressed the crowd.

His interest in politics began when, at the age of 8, a Democrat filibuster caught his attention, and he began researching and reaching out to learn as much as he could.

This morning Jonathan appeared on Fox & Friends to talk about his remarks at CPAC. Articulate, poised, and knowledgeable -- he calls Bill Bennett a personal friend and mentor -- Jonathan was asked what he considered the first thing the Republican Party needed to do to get back on track.

His response: Go back to our conservative principles.

From the mouths of babes....

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Does Fox News need an anchor....?

The Mardi Gras Fox News snow person.
(Yes, we know Mardi Gras is over but the beads added a great touch.)





Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 1, 2009

Winter Wonderland in the Valley






Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 1, 2009

NV: "Wayne assessments lower than average, but still draw ire of landowners"

The Waynesboro News Virginian concludes its week-long look at real estate assessments in Augusta County by visiting the Wayne District, the most urban area of Augusta County. And while talking to residents, reporter Jimmy LaRoue found support for those who have organized to question the county's assessments:
Though 80-year-old Marshall Davis lived through the Great Depression in the 1930s, he says the current recession is just as difficult and worries for the younger people living through it now.

Davis, who lives in Waynesboro but owns property in Augusta County’s Wayne District, says he’ll be able to get by even with reassessments on four pieces of his property that went up from 27 to 55 percent.

“I think it’s too high,” Davis said. “I’m with the Augusta County residents – we have some representatives that are pulling for us, the taxpayers, like Francis Chester and [Pastures Supervisor Tracy] Pyles.”

Chester, a Churchville attorney, has led a petition drive against the current reassessment, which went up by an average 27.7 percent over four years ago. The protests against the reassessment, according to the petition, are because the United States is in a deep recession and local landowners can’t afford the taxes on them, and because the properties wouldn’t sell for the appraised prices. The online petition currently includes more than 800 names.

“It hasn’t been good for me or for anyone,” Davis said. “Overall, people’s reassessments have gone way out of line.”
Another resident, who saw his assessment go up 40% on a house he has lived in since 1979, was more direct:
Robert Sheard, 60, who lives off Sunset Drive in the Grandview Heights subdivision near Ladd, said he wasn’t able to appeal his reassessment due to an illness in the family. He said he hopes the current Board of Supervisors is voted out of office.

“Houses are not worth that much, especially in this economy,” Sheard said. “I hope somebody can do something."
...
“I’ve never seen it go up like this,” Sheard said. “I mean, it’s gone up some, and you expect it to go up some, but I’ve never seen it go up this high.”
Read the entire article here.

"The weather outside is frightful ..."






"... but the fire is so delightful...."

After dropping 3" of snow in western Augusta County overnight, light snow has begun to fall again this morning on a gray, overcast Sunday in the Shenandoah Valley. It's a great opportunity to continue our Star Wars weekend with episodes IV, V, and VI as we couch in with overnight friends to enjoy a late winter snow day.

The fire is going ... we will be grilling this afternoon on the back porch and cooking veggies on the woodstove. Birds are flocking to the feeder ... cardinals, juncos, tufted titmouse, blue jays, goldfinches, wrens, Downy woodpeckers ... as SWAC Husband keeps it filled ... water is available in the heated bird bath on the deck. Watching the birds is part of the enjoyment on a day like this.

It sounds as if SWAC Niece will be getting a good snow out of this storm with Richmond predicted to receive enough of the white stuff to probably close schools tomorrow.

It's winter in the Shenandoah Valley....

Photos by SWAC Girl
Lynn Mitchell
March 1, 2009

Snowing in the Valley

The snow is coming down with an inch on the deck ... a fitting end to February. WHSV TV-3 has a winter weather advisory for Augusta County as well as Rockingham and Highland until 10 am Sunday with 1-3" of snow possible. Apparently there is a chance of more snow tomorrow night.

It's winter in the Shenandoah Valley....