RCP: "How bad could 2010 really get for Democrats?"

A recurring theme from every speaker last weekend at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans was the need to stay focused on November 2010 as Republicans strive to retake the U.S. House of Representatives.

Sean Trende with Real Clear Politics wrote an in-depth piece today, looking at the best case scenario vs the worst case scenario for Democrats this fall. The worst-case scenario is startling:

So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a "V"-shaped recovery and the Republicans overreach, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Guessing the outcome of elections is a sideshow for many and this year is no exception. The startling part of Mr. Trende's article is the sheer numbers that could be lost by Democrats if that perfect storm forms just in time for election day. As he points out, Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats "during my 50 years of following politics closely."

Read the rest of the article here.

Cross-posted at Virginia Virtucon