Monday, March 05, 2012

George Allen leads Kaine by 8%; mainstream media panic

The Washington Examiner's Senior Editorial Writer Conn Carroll calls out the NBC News/Marist poll with the latest slap-down and says, "Don't believe it for a second":
NBC News/Marist released a poll this weekend purporting to show that former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine is beating former Gov. George Allen, 48 percent to 39 percent. Don't believe it for a second. [emphasis added]
It's interesting that NBC News would attach its name to something that includes the stacked internals in this poll but, then again, it's campaign season and they have to get their Democratic candidates in office.

The National Journal exposed the lopsided numbers:
The NBC News/Marist Virginia poll shows a big edge for Democrats in party identification, which may explain a great deal of the discrepancies between this survey and other polls in the race. Thirty-six percent of voters surveyed said they were Democrats, while 24 percent said they were Republicans. When independents are allocated according to their leanings, 50 percent of respondents are Democrats or lean to Democrats, while 35 percent of voters identify as Republicans or Republican leaners. Democrats held a six-point party ID edge in 2008, according to exit polls.
The real numbers tell a different story and show why this poll smelled fishy from the time it hit the news cycle, as the Washington Examiner goes on to points out.

Last week's Roanoke College poll showed George Allen had broken away from the months-long tie with Kaine and was up eight percentage points over  Kaine. There must have been panic in the ranks to cobble together something like this but the blatant mainstream media have been called out.

1 comment:

Bob K. said...

Emmetsburg, Iowa might have the best means of predicting this race, the 'cess poll.'

In what might be dubbed the ultimate exit poll, voters in this northeast Iowa town cast their ballots flushing their toilets for the candidate of their choice. The results are read by a meter at the city water tower.

One wonders how Tim Kaine, who closed Virginia's rest areas as Governor, would fare in THAT poll?